okładka nr 13


Maria Drozdowicz-Bieć

Regional Business Cycle. International Experience – Implications for Poland

The paper presents some international results from research on business cycles in regions. It focuses on those results, which separate the main factors responsible for business cycles, as well as determine the length, amplitude, volatility and the magnitude of expansions and contractions. The paper presents main differences in the structure of the regional resources, innovations and investments, which usually influence and differentiate regional business cycles. The regional differences are illustrated by analyzing the output in Polish regions during 1999-2007. The recession (slow down) of 2000-01 is analyzed across Polish regions, as well as the UE accession impact on the economic activity in the country.

Janusz Zaleski, Paweł Tomaszewski, Marek Zembaty

Expertise: Forecasts of EU Cohesion Policy Impact on Regional Economies of lubelskie and podkarpackie Voivodships till the Year 2015

Authors presented historical data and forecasts of the macroeconomic performance of the two regional economies: lubelskie and podkarpackie. Projected values of a set of basic macroeconomic parameters (rate of GDP growth, level of GDP by PPS with reference to EU-27 average, unemployment rate) are presented till the year 2015. Special attention was paid to evaluation of EU cohesion policy macroeconomic impact on selected variables (rate of GDP growth, level of GDP by PPS with reference to EU-27 average, unemployment rate, employment). Simulations were made using the regional HERMIN models for the two voivodships. National and regional adaptations of the HERMIN macroeconomic model were built in Poland in the years 2002-2005 and since then are systematically developed by the Wroclaw Regional Development Agency team headed by Prof. Janusz Zaleski of the Wroclaw Technical University in co-operation with by Dr. John Bradley of the Economic and Social Research Institute (Dublin, Ireland) – an author of the original HERMIN model for the Irish Economy.

Eugeniusz Gorzelak, Zdzisław Zimny

Determinants of Regional Situation in Agriculture

The economic situation in Polish agricultural macroregions defines the following factors: environment (geographic location in the country, elevations, water resources, soils quality and others), historical events (agrarian structure, structure of the gross and market agricultural output), cultural condition (education, know-how, initiative), agricultural policy, market conditions (suplay, demand, prices). The business survey in agriculture carried out since 1992 by Research Institute for Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics shows the influence of these factors for the successive years and their seasons. The two individual indicators namely: the indicator of smoothed money income and the so called confidence indicator and also the composite business indicator (based on the individuals) show higher values among farms young, better educated and running greater agricultural farms in all macroregions.

Mikołaj Herbst

Forecast of GDP per Capita Growth in Polish Regions 2006-2015

The article offers a forecast of GDP per capita growth in Polish regions (NTS2) and subregions (NTS3) between 2006 and 2015, based on the past deviations of regional economies from the national growth path. The simulation shows that highest rates are expected in two metropolitan areas – Warsaw and Poznań. The Mazowieckie region (the one including Warsaw) will become the first to surpass the average level of GDP per capita in EU27. Although Poland will generally close the GDP gap to EU, further polarisation between regions is expected. The per capita income of the most lagging Polish regions will in 2015 reach (in real terms) the 2006 level of Polish national economy.

Grzegorz Kowalewski

Estimate of Propriety of Business Cycle Forecasts of Enterprises on Example of Retail Trade Units

Researching of quality of forecast formulated is purpose of article by directors of retail trade units in Poland. In weak situation of propriety of forecast try to find it reason. Two meters ex post employ for estimate of accuracy of forecast fast: Theil and for differences divergence. Article is based on empirical research. Results of business condition surveys are base of estimate of forecast.

Janusz Borowiec

Institutional Structures in the Process of Developing Rural Areas

The enterprise – understood as peoples’ aspiration to undertake activities, look for new solutions, utilize new opportunities and activities in order to find additional and alternative sources of income – constitutes an element of a the balanced economic development of rural areas. The process of the enterprise’s development means a higher diversity of income sources which subsequently provides for an opportunity to combine working on a farm with activitieas offered by the enterprise. The said process shows also an essential symbiosis between various entities active in the agro business sector i.e. privately owned farms, entities supplying and purchasing agricultural produce, banks and, also local government authorities. Entities running their business activity in a form of co-operative associations are essential links of a process of creating an institutional structure within rural areas. The said co-operative associations employ the activities of local communities and constitute grounds for transfer of means derived from various found-rising sources. Both the predispositions and experiences of co-operative associations lean towards an opinion that in fact co-operative associations thoroughly accomplish the assignment of local institutions to ensure a balanced economic development in rural areas.

Teresa Kondrakiewicz

Factors of Development of the Sugar Industry

The article discusses the factors of development of the sugar industry. Poland is a significant producer of sugar in Europe. Sugar industry plays an important role in Polish economy. Financial situation of the sugar industry changes quite often, which leads to a question about the minor factors of development of the sugar industry. There are two groups of these factors. The first one includes the factors connected with the market situation on the world sugar market and the level of demand. The second group of factors came into being as a result of specific situation on the sugar industry: its high dependence on agriculture and the fact that it is adjusted to Common Agriculture Policy. Since the season 2006/2007 a reform of the sugar market has been carrying through. Some of its aspects are the reduction of production limits, which have led to close many sugar factories, and the fall of sugar prices. The purpose of this reform is to improve the competitiveness of the European Union sugar industry on the world market.

Aleksandra Nizioł

Diversity of Socio-economic Development of Poviats in lubelskie Voivodeship

This article is an attempt to asses the diversity of socio-economic developments of poviats in lubelskie voivodeship based on synthetic model assessment - Hellwig. The results clearly indicate large differences between poviats as well as barriers which have restrictive influence on growth in the weakest one. These poviats should become entities of regional policy, with particular regard to the level of development up to now.