okładka nr 14


Elżbieta Adamowicz

Business Surveys as Additional Source of Information on Economic Situation

All entities involved in economic activity at all levels, acting both in real and regulatory areas, are permanently demanding accessibility of information. The information they are seeking is indispensable for decision – making process in order to reduce the extent of both uncertainty and risk. Major importance is attached by the entities to the following: proper diagnosis of the real course of economic processes, justifiable prognoses concerning a potential course of economic processes. The focal point of the paper is an analysis of usefulness of the data obtained in business surveys. Special attention shall be paid to the applicability of the data for those entities who analyse the course of economic processes, and the ones that purse economic policy. In order to assess the usefulness of the data, an attempt shall be made to address the following questions: could the data be used to significantly supplement a set of information, essential for both making current economic decisions and resolving dilemmas concerning the future, are they reliable, are they of a prognosis – like nature? The discussion in the paper shall be primarily base upon experience derived from the research done in RIED WSE. The research findings have been presented both in Poland as well as on the international forum. Internationally, it is the discussion held within CIRET (Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Survey) – organization including major centers dealing with business situation worldwide – that should be considered the most inspiring.

Józef Garczarczyk, Marek Mocek

Regional Diversity of Business Cycle in Financial Service Market in Poland

The objective of the article is to answer the question whether and to what extend there are changes of economic situation in regions in two basic financial service markets in Poland, i.e. bank service market and insurance service market. Carrying out surveys concerning changes of economic situation is not an easy task and there are two different methods of obtaining it. The first consists in regional comparison of appropriate statistical data set, the second is based on survey research among financial firms. In this paper the basis for analysis constitutes the latter method. The analysis, presented in this paper, are based on all-Poland quarterly business surveys conducted by Department of Marketing Research at University of Economics in Poznań. The subject matter of analysis of regional diversity are changes in essential categories which characterize situation on examined markets, described by simple and complex qualitative indicators of economic situation. As far as bank service market is considered, analysis includes mainly changes of obtained deposits, granted credits and synthetic indicator PIKBANK-REG. Whereas, in case of insurance service market, analyzed changes concern mainly collected insurance premium, paid out indemnities and synthetic indicator PIKU-REG. The changes of economic situation in singled out five regions (Pomeranian [pomorskim], Great Poland [wielkopolskim], Central, East, South) are shown on the background of business cycle observed on all-Poland financial service market.

Jan Andreasik

A competence Strategy Assessment of the SME Sector Enterprises (in the SOK-P1 system).

In the paper, an original author’s approach to analysis of competitive position of an enterprise of the SME sector is presented. A model of a competence strategy assessment of an enterprise is constructed in five spaces: capital potential - risk of the financial activity, innovation and investment potential - risk of the investment and innovation projects, key stakeholder potential - risk of the stakeholder service, neighborhood relationship potential - neighborhood relationship risk, environment relationship potential - environment relationship risk. In the learning process by means of the EUCLID and ELECTRE TRI methods, four classes of the enterprise position were determined: A1: low potential, high risk, A2: high potential, high risk, A3: high potential, low risk, A4: low potential, low risk. In the paper, results of classification of 220 enterprises from Podkarpackie and Lubelskie Voivodeships are depicted.

Mieczysław Kowerski

On the Informative Value of „Remain Unchanged” Answers in the Economic Sentiment Surveys

In almost all economic sentiment surveys three option multiple – choice question are used: improve, remain unchanged, deteriorate In calculation of balances the “remain unchanged” replies are discarded, because the experience in the OECD countries has shown that this loss of information is unimportant for most uses of business tendency surveys. From the side in many surveys “remain unchanged” the fraction replies in the total is above 50%. So we can formulate the question: Is really the loss of such big number answers is unimportant and what does it mean that respondent replay “remain unchanged”. In our opinion we should not easily discarded the replies “remain unchanged” because they can give us a lot of very interesting additional information on the investigated population. In article to analysis the “remain unchanged” replies the concept of the Ordered Dependent Variable Models was proposed. Estimated model can be used to analysis of the probability of “remain unchanged” replies dependent on the characteristics of respondents, the replies on other questions and the socio-economic situation in region and in the country.

Robert Pater

Growth cycles and the Dynamics of Business Cycles

It is commonly assumed that business cycles last about 6 to 32 quarters. Therefore they are quite irregular and the amplitude of the recurring signifi cantly vary. Moreover existing methods of business cycles extraction give various results. Every method slightly differently defines ‘cycle’. The purpose of this article is to analyze the dynamics of business cycles in chosen macroeconomic variables. First part of the article is a comparison of three methods of cycle extraction: step cycles, deviation cycles and growth rate cycles. Then I analyze the dynamics of business cycles phases. Particular attention is paid to the distinction of economic cycles on business cycles and growth cycles. Growth cycles extend from 6 do 16 quarters. They are hardly observable in raw data, especially in macroeconomic aggregates. However they can easily be seen in business condition test results. After applying appropriate filtering method we can say that growth cycles are also recorded by many other variables, especially macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP or the rate of unemployment. In the article I indicate that this kind of cycles is significant for the analysis of relation between leading indexes and coincident indicators.

Andrzej Burda

Economical Sentiment Analysis Using Kohonen Networks

In following paper pattern-less classification of respondents surveys on economical sentiment has been made. Surveys were carried out by The College of Management and Administration in Zamość on Lubelskie Province. Studies has been executed using artificial neural networks methodology and Kohonen networks has been used for classification. Three characteristic groups of responders has been identified and described. Analysis of change in number of responders during years 2003-2007 became a basis for assessment of economical sentiment change in examined period.

Krzysztof Pancerz, Aleksandra Tu-Van, Norbert Tu-Van

Explanation Process of Enterprise Economic Situation Assessments in Potential-Risk Spaces – an Experimental Study

A new approach to predicting economic situation of enterprises using the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) methodology has been presented by J. Andreasik. The approach based on the original enterprise ontology concentrates on enterprise assessments in the range of potential and risk. The aggregation of assessments leads to determining the enterprise position in five potential-risk spaces. The aim of the paper is to present the explanation process of enterprise economic situation assessments in potential-risk spaces. The explanation process consists of two stages. In the first stage, in each potential-risk space, cases (enterprise positions) are grouped into clusters. In the second stage, in each potential-risk space, some rules determining dependencies between enterprise assessments made by experts and belongingness of the enterprise to a given cluster are extracted. To carry out clustering and rule mining, standard methods of data mining and knowledge discovery have been used. Experiments have been made using information on above 200 enterprises in the SME sector from south-east Poland collected within the confines of the EQUAL Project No. F0086 conducted by College of Management and Public Administration in Zamość.