okładka nr 17


Maria Drozdowicz-Bieć

The Growth in the Shadow of Global Recession

The paper presents the last slowdown in Polish economy during 2007-2009 and the first warnings of coming slowdown registered by Leading Indicator. The regional differences during recession are illustrated by analyzing the output in Polish regions. The recession (slow down) of 2007-09 is analyzed across Polish regions and compared to the recession of 2000-01. There are presented the first signs of the recovery, the threats of future development and different shapes of the recession.

Keywords: business cycle, recession, slowdown, shape of recovery
JEL: E32, R11, O40

Mieczysław Kowerski

The methodology of the economic sentiment surveys of the Lubelskie region in comparison with the European Commission surveys

The paper attempts to compare the methodology applied in the economic sentiment surveys of the Lubelskie region (carried out since 2001) with the methodology of the joint harmonized EU program of business and consumer surveys, proposed to the EU members by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The carried out analysis showed that in spite of some differences in details and conformity, just in an outline with the methodology proposed by the EU, the methodology applied in the economic sentiment surveys of the Lubelskie region gives similar results. The comparison of graphs calculated for the EU and Poland by using the European Commission’s methodology of economic sentiment indicators with the values of diagnostic economic sentiment indicator for the Lubelskie region, shows the large synchronization of changes, especially in the indicator for Poland and the Lubelskie region. The confidence indicators and the economic sentiment indicator calculated for the Lubelskie region are highly correlated with the corresponding indicators for Poland calculated by using the European Commission’s methodology. At the same time, the economic sentiment indicator for the Lubelskie region shows the highest correlation with the indicator for Poland one month lagged. It means that the entrepreneurs and consumers in the region, react to economic changes a month later than it is averagely done in Poland.

Keywords: The Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Confidence indicators, Lubelskie region
JEL: E32, R11

Krzysztof Grabczuk, Bogdan Kawałko

Shaping development processes of the Lubelskie region – Integrated Regional Development Programme for years 2004-2006

Years 2004-2006 were a period, in which one tried to construct a regional instrument for management and implementation of regional policy instruments. The central government in co-operation with particular voivodships prepared the first quasi-regional Integrated Regional Operational Programme for years 2004-2006. Under this document, part of competencies and decisions regarding the ways of EU funds expenditure were transferred to a voivodship level. This meant a bigger influence of regional authorities together with social and economic partners on projects selection. Including self-government administration in a management process was a first step and at the same time an important test prior to transferring wider competencies for subsequent programming period 2007-2013. The article presents results of intervention analysis with regard to Integrated Regional Operational Programme for years 2004-2006 in the Lubelskie Voivodship and evaluation of its implementation from the point of view of its influence on shaping development processes of the Lubelskie region. It also aims at summarizing material and social effects of the programme execution, which results will be used during a discussion on a shape of the cohesion policy in a new programming period after 2014 and in works on a new instrument of the national regional policy. The analysis was conducted based on few aspects: quantitative (number of projects), value (the amount of engaged means, indicators of target achievement), thematic (the material scope of executed projects), subjective (structure of beneficiaries) and spatial (distribution of support measures in compliance with NTS V). As a result of applying accepted algorithm, EUR 201 million (PLN 762 million) from European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund was allocated for execution of Integrated Regional Operational Programme (IROP) in the Lubelskie Voivodship. Despite relatively high share of IROP in the structure of aid funds in the voivodship (above 30%) its importance in global investment expenditures was relatively low. It is proved by the medium annual level of executed payments from structural funds under IROP in the amount of PLN 270.5 million and by the medium annual level of investment expenditures in the region in the said period, which is PLN 4.5 billion. Therefore structural funds under IROP for the Lubelskie Voivodship were only 6.1% of the general investment expenditures in the Lubelskie region. IROP 2004-2006 was able to meet only a small part of regional development needs. It’s important role should be perceived as supporting regional and local investment and not as the main „power” stimulating its development. Except for financial perspective, important educational and organizational functions should be stressed. Thanks to its implementation self-governments obtained new experiences and prepared appropriate structures for execution of operational programmes of the perspective 2007-2013.

Keywords: Regional Development Programme, Lubelskie Voivodship
JEL: R11, H83

Zbigniew Mogiła, Janusz Zaleski, Marek Zembaty

Modelling of Gross Value Added deflators in the regional HERMIN model for Lower Silesia

HERMIN model is a research tool used for a long time by the European Commission to analyze the impact of the cohesion policy on a range of macroeconomic variables. It has been applied for Poland as a whole since 2002 as well as for the Polish regions since 2005. The regional HERMIN models are modified in order to take into consideration a variety of specifics of the Polish voivodeships. Forecasting methods of Gross Value Added (GVA) deflators seem to be a good example of such modifications. The aim of this paper is to present those methods applied in the regional HERMIN model for Lower Silesia and the proposals of their improvements (using the available historical data by sector for the period 2000-2007). The following conclusions ought to be drawn from the above mentioned analysis: The modified forecasting method of regional GVA deflators for the market services sector allows not only for unit labour costs but also for the world manufacturing price which implies a higher precision of the analysis. In the new version of the regional HERMIN model, the values of GVA deflators for the manufacturing sector are determined by the world manufacturing price and regional factors instead of implementing deflators from the national level. It allows us to improve the quality of forecasts by including the regional aspects. In the modified regional HERMIN model, building and construction are singled out as a separate sector. GVA deflator is calculated here on the basis of regional unit labour costs. In the case of non-market services and agriculture, the forecasting methods of GVA deflators have not been changed.

Keywords: deflator, Gross Value Added, HERMIN, macroeconomic model
JEL: R15