okładka nr 18


Elżbieta Adamowicz, Sławomir Dudek, Dawid Pachucki

Financial crisis results in real economy in USA and selected European countries

The currently observed downturn in economic activity is seen as the most serious one in post II World War history. The disturbances of financial markets have triggered the deepest globally-synchronized recession. In our research we would like to describe the influence of the financial crisis on the business cycles in the United States and selected European Union countries. We also would like to find out if the breakdown of the business and consumer survey results (Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industry Confidence Indicator, Construction Confidence Indicator, and Consumer Survey) was reflected in real data such as GDP, household consumption, gross fixed capital formation, industrial production, construction and assembly production. For the purpose of our analysis we have used data published by Eurostat. The only exception was the qualitative data for Poland which were taken from IRG SGH database. All the data were seasonally adjusted with use of Tramo-Seats procedure which also allowed us to remove the outliers. The business cycle frequencies were filtered out by the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. Then we identified the turning points with the use of Bry-Boschan routine implemented in BUSY software. Next, we computed the depth of recession starting from the latest peak and to the trough if it was recognized, or to the last available observation, if it was not recognized. In the case of quantitative data, we analyzed classical and deviation cycles. For qualitative data, only deviation cycles were considered. Our research identified the Baltic States as the most affected by the current recession. Poland was least affected. We also confirmed the leading behavior of qualitative data vs. the quantitative sets. It is worth noting that our research indicated the dependency of the depth of recession in quantitative data on the drop in surveys data. This however needs some more formal statistical analysis, especially to confirm the causality.

Keywords: financial crisis, real economy, fluctuations of macroeconomic variables: qualitative and quantitative
JEL: E32

Grzegorz Kowalewski

Using the sum of positive and negative answers as a supplement of balances in business tendency surveys

In most business tendency surveys, respondents usually have three options of choice, such as up, same and down. The balance is then calculated by subtracting the up percentage from the down percentage. When analyzing balances only, the full information about the answers structure is rejected. To avoid this, it is appropriate to supplement the balances with additional rate: the percentage sum of positive and negative answers. In the paper use of this indicator will be talked over and exemplified by GUS (Central Statistical Office) questionnaire data.

Keywords: business tendency surveys
JEL: E32

Mieczysław Kowerski

The respondents’ uncertainty in economic sentiment surveys

The paper is the analysis of the distribution of answers “difficult to answer” which have been gathered during the economic sentiment surveys of the Podlaskie region in the first three quarters of 2009. Applied statistical tests and linear and quadratic logit models helped to verify positively the series of hypotheses and to determine the factors which influenced respondents’ uncertainty. It has been proved that the respondents’ uncertainty grows together with the decreasing of his/her educational level and the household income. Less certain in the formulation of answers are unemployed. The respondents’ certainty (the probability of unambiguous answer) is increasing to his/her 50’s, but after reaching this age, decreases again. The research shows that the respondents’ certainty in the Podlaskie region has decreased from quarter to quarter which could be the result of recession.

Keywords: Economic sentiment surveys, Podlaskie region, “difficult to answer” option in questionnaire, t-test of structure indicator, linear and quadratic logit models
JEL: C83

Mariola Zalewska

Cluster structures as factors driving the regional economic trends. Case study of the rural areas of Radom subregion

Aspects of analysis of selected areas of economic activity in the rural areas of the subregion of Radom are presented. An essay to identify the factors influencing regional economic trends is undertaken. In the Radom subregion one can easily identify national level competitive environment, a cluster of producers of vegetables, which can influences regional economic trends.

Keywords: cluster, rural areas, competitiveness, regional economic trends
JEL: R11

Waldemar A. Gorzym-Wilkowski

Spatial planning as a territorial marketing instrument of Agricultural Property Agency in Lubelskie Province

The aim of the Agricultural Property Agency is, among other things, to sell the state property at the best price. To achieve this aim, it is necessary to apply the rules of territorial marketing, and one of its tools is spatial planning. The Agency’s Regional Branch in Lublin uses spatial planning to increase the market value of its assets. However, it still owns numerous land parcels, the market value of which could increase after changing their designations in local plans for spatial development. The market merits of these land parcels could be properly used only after developing and implementing a well-ordered marketing strategy including spatial planning mechanisms.

Keywords: territorial marketing, spatial planning, state property, Lublin Voivodeship
JEL: M31, M38, O21