okładka nr 19


Andrzej Burda, Zdzisław S. Hippe

Methodology of Predicting the Future Condition of Small and Medium Enterprises

Our paper presents the concept behind a new methodology of predicting the future condition (i.e. over-all state) of small and medium enterprises, relied on results of a specific data mining procedure. The developed procedure is based on the controlled improvement of the source data set (describing the investigated objects) with the use of an ensemble of artificial neural networks, EANN. Then, in the next step of the procedure, various machine learning algorithms are applied to generate models that figure out inherent properties of the investigated objects. The reliability of the prediction, confirmed in a very exhaustive tests conducted on data from the span of 8 years, was close to 80% of correctness.

Keywords: small and medium enterprises, neural networks, predicting the future condition
JEL: C45, L25

Robert Pater

Dynamic relations in Polish labour market using SVECM model

In the article dynamic relations between real GDP and chosen variables in the labour market has been analysed. These variables are: employment, real wages, vacancies and number of economically active people. To achieve this the structural vector error correction model (SVECM) has been used. Long-run labour demand function has been estimated. The result of the influence of macroeconomic shocks on the endogenous variables of the model has also been calculated. The shocks included are: aggregated demand shock, technology shock, demographic shock, mismatch shock and wages shock. Based on the used methodology the variables of the model were decomposed according to the influence of particular shocks. The innovation of the article was including vacancies in the model. It enabled the estimation of the influence of mismatch between labour demand and supply on each of the modeled variables. The estimation showed that in the short-run the greatest influence on the employment has aggregated demand shock. However, technology shock and mismatch shock also explain certain proportion of the variance of this variable. In the long-run wages shock and demographic shock become more important. The results also showed some permanent effects of mismatch shock on employment, which may be the result of structural unemployment. Another conclusion is procyclicality of classical real wages cycles and anticyclicality of their growth cycles. Moreover, the analysis showed the existence of the added-worker and discouraged-worker effects in Polish labour market.

Keywords: SVECM model, labour market model, employment creation, labour demand disturbances
JEL: E24, J20, J64

Jarosław Bielak

Forecasting of Lublin Voivodeship labor market by applying ARIMA and ARIMAX models

In the article practical application of models ARIMA and ARIMAX to forecast Lublin Voivodeship labor market – number of unemployed persons and average paid employment in enterprise sector – is presented. Additional variable in the ARIMAX models is economic sentiment index (barometer). The differences between forecast obtained by ARIMA models and forecasts obtained by ARIMAX models are shown. Quarterly and monthly time series are taken into consideration. Additionally method of conversion economic sentiment index from quarterly to monthly frequency is discussed. In the last part of paper the presented forecasting method is reviewed.

Keywords: forecasting, labor market, economic sentiment index, ARIMA and ARIMAX models, Lublin
JEL: C5, J2, R23

Magdalena Gostkowska-Drzewicka

The impact of macroeconomics factors on the situation in the market of dwellings completed by real estate development industry in Poland and in Tricity in 1995–2007

The aim of this article is to measure the impact of macroeconomics factors which have determined situation in the market of dwellings completed by real estate development industry in Poland and in Tricity. GDP - as a measure which has reflected economic situation – is the background determines the development of this market. Regression analysis has proved that the situation in the market of dwellings completed by real estate development industry – in case on capital-intensive character of real estate investment - is depended on availability of financing. It is determined such factors as: housing mortgages increase, average wages increase and disposable income of households sector income. Regression analysis also has proved that interest rate increase in period t restrains the situation in the market of dwellings completed by real estate development industry in the next period. Also inflation increase is the factor, which slows down the situation in this market.

Keywords: real estate development industry, dwellings, macroeconomic factors
JEL: R31

Andrzej Pakuła

Financial crises – the product of greed

The paper follows the course of financial crises – financial scandals over the centuries. It allows to verify the thesis, that financial crises are much the same, always underlined by greed and speculation. The successive crises are described by an even larger scale of speculation then in the past. The modern financial crisis differs from the earlier ones in all that it is global in character because of the globalization of economical, financial and social phenomena. At the same time its consequences for a real sphere are severe. The paper picked up as well the topic of the ways of preventing crises in the future.

Keywords: financial crises, speculative bubble, bear market, bull market, investment instruments, securitization
JEL: G01